Consumption in MWh (see Documentation for unit note)
Last 3 years actual (MWh) · YoY
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consumption, selected scope
Year 1 forecast (Aug'26–Jul'27, MWh)
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5-year forecast total (MWh)
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Aug 2026 – Jul 2031
Total Peak MW (scope)
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Actual (Jan 2023–Jul 2026) Forecast (Aug 2026–Jul 2031)
Forecast confidence by horizon
Per-feeder forecasts: Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (damped trend, additive seasonality) fit on 43 months of actuals per
feeder, then summed across the current filter scope (and current plant shortlist, if one is selected below). The damped-trend
term is what carries each feeder's own historical growth or decline into its forecast — see Documentation for how that works and
where it intentionally levels off. Confidence bands are backtested at 12 months only (this 42-feeder pocket, 2 folds) and
extrapolated to Years 2–5 via a formula — see Documentation for the honest version of this.
Feeder Ranking
Uses the same filters above, plus the plant selector below
Plant view:
General ranking — no plant selected
Scoring weights
Total100%
Weights changed — click Re-run to update the table Weights must add up to 100% — ranking not updated.
Data completeness (out of 6 criteria, incl. the 2 muted by default): 6/6 — full data (37 of 42 feeders) 2–5/6 — partial data 1/6 — band only, other 5 default to 0 (5 zero-consumption/inactive feeders)
Ranking heatmap — Ajele & Lekki districts
Best rankWorst rank
Schematic layout — two district-level anchor points (Ajele, Lekki), not surveyed feeder coordinates. Dot color = rank within the current filtered/shortlisted set, gradient from best (green) to worst (red). Hover a dot for feeder detail.
Composite = weighted blend of the six criteria above (0–100 each) — Band + transition and Infrastructure density are muted
to 0% by default (not removed); move their sliders to bring them back into the ranking. A criterion missing for a feeder
scores 0 for that component rather than being excluded — so a low composite can mean "genuinely weak feeder" or "data not
yet available." Always check the Data badge before reading a low rank as a weak feeder. This dashboard is restricted to the client-specified
42-feeder pocket (28 Ajele-district + 13 Lekki-district feeders, plus UBA/UBN reclassified from 33kV) — all other EKEDC
feeders are excluded entirely, not zero-scored. 5 of the 42 (Autotelex, Gbo, National Hall Local, Supreme Court, Unity
(Custom)) are genuinely zero-consumption / Inactive in the source data, not a data gap. * Avg Consumption unit is inferred
as MWh; the source workbook does not label it explicitly. † Peak MW is the estimated fallback (Avg MW × 1.25), used only
for UBA/UBN, which has no real April-2026 peak reading — see Documentation. ‡ Avg Load (MW) is a reference column only —
it feeds the Load Factor criterion's calculation but is not itself a scored criterion. See Documentation.